Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Double top?

I haven't heard a single person mention "Double top" on this market, since everyone knows this market is just going up. Actually I think there is a good chance it will go up a little, just purely based on Fibonacci and EW.

And bulllish extent index doesn't seem quite extreme enough as one would expect on the "recovery" of the greatest stock crash after the greatest stock mania of all time. When I start hearing about how resiliant this economy is, and how Greenspan had it right all along, well...then there will be change I can believe in.

And market participants will probably cheer if the Gov announces further liquidity to support the markets and prevent "too strong" a dollar which would also hurt our exports and thus put our recevery at risk. They will say...we are in this thing too deep, if we back off the incentives now, we might slip back into recession.

With all the daily hoopla going on, it is easy to forget that all this money printing going on is part of a vast transfer of wealth from the hard working and responsible to irresponsible, greedy, and powerful. Don't let that get in the way of good trade decisions, but keep it in mind.

There are other things going on as well, such as wars that are not going well, lack of investmenet in alternative energy in the past, corruption at multiple levels, breakage of contract law. I was in awe that instead of living through a "rationing period" such as 1943 in which pennies were no longer coined in copper, but in zinc, we were instead driving humvees, buying big screen TV's, living like there was no tomorrow.

So it's not just about the money printing, and squandering the application of that printed money, thats just part of it. Most things can be fixed with money...until it become worthless. I wonder what bankers think when they know that their 30 year fixed mortgages will be paid back with paper that is worth only 30% of what the mortgage was based on....I guess that doesn't affect this years bonus.

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