Monday, September 14, 2009

Be afraid of the "Thin Zone"

This is a lightly traded area on the way down, between 1050 and 1120.

Be afraid, be very afraid. My thoughts are the MM's push the market into this zone for a final shake the last bear out of the tree. Most people think bears are capitulating today....hehe, got a secret.

But seriously at some point, you do need to say enough is enough or the margin clerk may make the decision for you, and if you ever met the margin clerk you might as well be shaking hands with the Grim reaper, because they are some roughshod hands. They will probably sell off your favorite asset at the worst possible time.

Agreed, I don't know all the psychology but it seems like after a fall, people hang on to their stock (buy and hold brainwashing which does sometimes work), but then when they get back "to even" and don't have to take the ego-lashing of taking a loss, that they are happy to sell at that time. That put downward pressure on prices.

But when there is no one in the thin zone...this type of effect is not present. So prices could run quick. My guess is the MM push the market up quickly and then with retail sales, it will be a sell the news event.

There may be more ramifications than my simple example, which I think is a powerful one.

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Insightful and Useful Comment!