Monday, September 14, 2009

Fibonacci "Pushes" third times the charm!

I have been watching this for some time, and looking at the decreasing strength of each push upward. Let's use the Russell.

Take IWM for example, the push lasted from 34.03 to 51.22, = 17.18

61.8% of 17.18 ===10.61

The bottom of the second push was 47.27, add 10.61, and you get 57.88

Check out the peak on August 8, peak of the second push, 57.8.

Now the third push--started at 55.3, now at 60.08

For consistency, lets use the same Fibonacci number, 61.8 percent of the second push (call it 10.61) is 6.55

Add 6.55 to 55.3 and you get 61.85 on IWM.

Right now it is 60.05---So that is almost a perfect 3% increase from here. There is a beauty in symmetry to nature. There may not be a beauty in symmetry to manipulated markets, and yes they are always manipulated as much as they can get away with, but this time around that level of "get away with" is higher.

I do not think we will go higher than 3% more from here, maybe 4%, but there is a cap. Beyond 4% and I will have to stop "capitulating" and really capitulate.

1 comment:

Insightful and Useful Comment!