Thursday, May 13, 2010

Put Call Ratio -- ?? Que Pasa?? Indicating this is a bottom, now

In 90% of the cases, a  peaking put/call ratio (equity put call /ratio that is), peaks while the market is trending down and just turning up.

Now we have had a 6% ramp in a week, and the put/call in hitting the upper trend line.   Very odd indeed.   Does this mean we rally hard from here?  I hope so because I am going on vacation and would like to come back to a market 5% higher so I can short it.

A blogger "Raised by Wolves" (he is probably howling at the no moon), suggested some out of the money puts on EEM or similar, as a "hedge" to missing the big drop.  I like that idea....Vix is down,

One theory is that as money is competitively devalued to kick the can down the road and to increase foreign trade balances, that a "hard asset" like the net present value of the future earnings potential of a company (the "fundamental value" of a company" goes up.  

Funny thing is...stock prices don't follow fundamentals much, and if deflation sets in for say 3 to 4 years, some of those buying the dip may be quite surprised.   And the value of a stock....nothing but a fleeting electron across your brokers computer processor....that is why they call them equities (to make it sound so solid). 

It is a new moon, those freak people out more than full moons.   Everyone is on their guard in the full moon, in the new moon, unknown danger lies ready to pounce.  

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Insightful and Useful Comment!