Friday, August 12, 2011

Commentators and Bear Flag with Spinning Top on the SPY

It is amazingly curious how many Market Commentators spend time giving you a lesson on what just happened.   Or making prognostications, and then if they were wrong, never admitting it or never (as they should) revisiting it to sleuth out what threw them off, or what changed. 

The owners of Stockcharts had a late night Friday synopsis of some cool indicators.   And not trying to poke them in the eye, but they call each email alert a "market message".   Sometimes I get the idea that the message is "what happened".  back to this later.

Sure, cash is king.  Only price pays.   And everyone has their eye on price.   That is what the prime deceptive plays are using, price.  Why not, that is what everyone has their eye's on.    How can, for decades after decades, a high put call ratio be consistently ramped against?   Well if you are short, and you see the put call go high, you better do a gut check before the ramping starts. 

Hence the use of indicators --- it is harder to make indicators lie.  Price can be directly manipulated, at least by the market makers.   They use their assets under management to buy buy buy, or they simply drop the bid to get the market to fall (after they have sold a bunch of calls--maybe to your State Retirement System as a "professional hedge").  

Hawaii Trading has some custom indicators:
  1. The Fear Factor (FF)
  2. Volatility on Steroids (VOS)
  3. Precious Metals Exuberance Index (PME)
  4. Chart of Charts (CC)
  5. Asset Class Total (ACT)
  6. Put Call Oscillator (PCO)
As I continue to build a true trading system (based on a number of methods, and number of time-frames), the integration of these indicators is central.  Using classic tools such as TICK (and tick fades) is also a "no brainer".   And reading the work of true experts, not just having the book on the shelf (good start)

For now, on the above HTCI's, simply search the blog for the short title.   Honestly no time to detail each one specifically.

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Insightful and Useful Comment!